Real estate statistics are a valuable tool for assessing market conditions and trends. In fact, I share them right here quite regularly—last week’s post was all about Lake Tahoe home sales pricing, interactive map included, for the first quarter of 2023. But let me be clear that real estate stats, however useful they can be, are often misused, misunderstood and even misleading. The key isn’t in the raw data as much as it is the educated interpretation of that data. And to help, I’m sharing four rules that can help you navigate the power and pitfalls of real estate statistics.
Rule #1: Context is Everything
Statistics without informed context are, in a word, worthless. You can support any argument, good or bad, simply by cherry-picking a single statistic from a specific dataset and time period. That doesn’t mean it’s relevant or even accurate. The real value comes from analyzing data more broadly and accounting for factors like location, property type and market segment as we went into in more depth in Why Over-Asking Sales are a Useless Stat.
Rule #2: Beware of Generalities
It’s easy to forget, but median and average statistics are merely generalizations. Keep in mind that short-term fluctuations in stable markets, as well as external factors, can and do influence price statistics. Here’s the big takeaway—the differences between individual home sales means it’s impossible to accurately assess a specific property’s value without a comparative market analysis. In other words, don’t pin all your hopes on generalities!
Rule #3: Look for Long-Term Trends
A single statistic, such as the median sales price, is merely one part of a bigger picture and lacks context. You’ll get a much more accurate idea of what’s happening in a given market by examining supply, demand and value measures over a longer timeframe. Instead of focusing on what’s happened in a single week, look for bigger timeframes. Quarterly or longer-term data is more likely to deliver more reliable trends even if it’s less timely.
Rule #4: No One Can Predict the Future
Even expert predictions can be wrong—and often are! No one has a crystal ball, and educated guesses about what’s to come are nothing more than that. Keep in mind that financial markets are subject to various changing factors, and there’s a very real influence on real estate. The savviest approach is to question foregone conclusions and find an experienced real estate agent with a successful track record and a humble nature, who understands that accurately forecasting the market is never guaranteed.
The Bottom Line
Following these four rules is the best way to use real estate statistics to your benefit. I follow them myself, which is why my clients can always expect straightforward info and detailed context. Compass does an excellent job of researching and vetting real estate stats to minimize anomalies to offer a comprehensive picture of what the market is doing—and what it may do moving forward. It’s a guess, to be sure, but it’s as informed as possible.
If you’re looking for market insight, or you’re considering buying or selling in San Francisco or the Reno-Lake Tahoe area, you know where to find me.